Four Investment Ideas With Upcoming Catalysts : Part 2

In this two part post I outline four value investments that I own with catalysts in the first quarter of 2014.  In part 1 of this post I reviewed Air Products and Chemicals (APD) and Annaly Capital Management (NLY). Here are my final two picks:

Eastman Chemical (EMN)
Catalyst: Aggressive share repurchase plan starting in Q1 2014

I laid out a detailed case for owning Eastman Chemical in late October. In summary, over the past decade Eastman has transformed itself from a maker of commodity chemicals into a specialty chemical maker with among the highest margins in the group. Specialty chemical makers tend to trade for a large premium to their commodity peers yet Eastman is among the cheapest stocks in its sector. Eastman has one of the highest free cash flow yields, lowest P/Es and lowest EV/EBITDA ratios in the chemical sector.

Eastman has spent the past few quarters paying down debt that resulted from an acquisition and will be done paying it down by the end of 2013. I believe that starting in the first quarter of 2014 Eastman will direct free cash flow towards shareholders in the form of an aggressive share repurchase.

Eastman management has stated numerous times that they will use their balance sheet and ample free cash flow to reach their earnings goal of $7 in 2014 and $8 in 2015. They have also said that acquisition targets are too expensive now, which points towards share repurchases to increase earnings. Management also mentioned in passing on a recent webcast that share repurchases have a larger effect on EPS when done earlier in the year. This leads me to believe that Eastman will start repurchasing shares aggressively in the first quarter of 2014, getting the ball rolling on a re-rating of the stock. I am long EMN short ALB CE DD DOW FMC

Muni Bond Closed End Funds
Catalyst: End of tax loss selling

Municipal bond closed end funds (muni CEFs) are down as much as 30% from their highs in some cases. Fed tapering and headlines from Puerto Rico and Detroit have brutalized the municipal bond market and muni CEFs even more so. This leaves many muni CEFs trading at high single digit discounts to NAV and yielding nearly 7%, which is the taxable equivalent of over 10%.

I believe that scary headlines like those in Puerto Rico and Detroit are outliers. For the most part municipal finances have improved over the past year as tax receipts have grown along with the economy. One could even argue that municipal bonds value versus treasuries should be higher than ever as tax rates are higher so the tax advantage has grown. Municipal bonds offer the best after tax, risk adjusted return of any asset class. Once tax loss selling ends the market should begin to recognize this. I am long NRK VMO VKQ PMO NAN


Bobby G said...

The muni funds you mention, with the exception of PMO, have expense ratios in excess of 1.5% and are leveraged over 30%. What about cheaper, more prudently positioned funds like MHF and NUW?

Am I missing something?

Tsachy Mishal said...

I want the leverage as I am bullish on the asset class. For the most part they all charge management fees of about 90 bps and remainder is largely the interest expense related to the leverage.

Patti said...

why not pimco funds ?

Tsachy Mishal said...

At the time i bought these funds theyw ere trading at double digit discounts to NAV. Its possible the Pimco funds were not as deeply discounted at the time

SD said...

While I am long couple of muni bond fund it is not that cheap. They are only down by 20% which is not like 50% off in stocks during 2008.