Dow’s “summer” gain — over the six months beginning on 5/1 | Dow’s “winter” gain — over the six months beginning on 11/1 | |
2010 | 1.0% | 15.2% |
2011 | -6.7% | 10.5% |
2012 | -0.9% | ??? |
Average since 1896 | 1.7% | 5.1% |
I learned the hard way that seasonality works by fighting the market at the strongest parts of the year earlier in my investment career. Seasonality is not a be all and end all. It is one of many indicators I use to form a market opinion.
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