Last week I pointed to some signs that the crowd may have turned excessively bullish and since then some more signs have piled up.
- Market Vane bulls are the highest since June 2007.
- The NAAIM survey of manager sentiment is above 80, which has been about as high as it gets.
- The 10 day moving average of the CBOE put/call ratio is the lowest its been in one and a half years.
- I spent quite a bit of time this past week listening to Bloomberg radio and there was not a single bear.
The vast majority of sentiment indicators are now pointing to excessive optimism. The anecdotal evidence I am seeing is pointing to excessive optimism. While these periods of excessive bullishness tend to last longer than they used to, they still do not tend to end well.
6 comments:
[...] of excessive bullishness are piling up. (Capital Observer, Pragmatic [...]
YUP
How much time do we have left?
[...] Excess Bullishness [...]
Since 2009 there were a few times when excess bullishness lasted for a couple of months. The gains were slow and were given back and then some once a correction started. Pre-2009 corrections tended to start much quicker once we saw excess bullishness.
[...] Excess Bullishness (CapitalObserver) [...]
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