The Nail In The Coffin

By taking no action Mario Draghi guaranteed that for the rest of the summer the economy will continue to deteriorate. There is unlikely to be any material action from the ECB before September unless things get ugly first. The momentum of the global economy is negative and I see nothing to break that momentum.

The stock market is not the economy so it does not necessarily mean the stock market has to follow the economy. However, I believe that with a negative fundamental backdrop, fair valuations and muddled sentiment the upside is limited and not worth the risk.

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