Don't Worry About A Thing

There is slowly increasing evidence that market participants may be getting a bit too excited. The call activity at the CBOE is approaching the highest level all year. The updated chart is shown below.

Most of the sentiment indicators I follow are not showing the type of enthusiasm that the CBOE put/call ratio is but they are moving in the bullish direction. Anecdotally, I am seeing a lot more bullishness. I was listening to an interview on Bloomberg radio where two guests were asked for a theme song for the market. One suggested "Here comes the sun" while the other suggested "Dont worry about a thing". The second guest was introduced as being normally very bearish.

After two months of rallying market participants have finally turned bullish. Unfortunately, this likely means we are in the latter part of this rally. There is still room for sentiment to get more bullish before I would categorize the bullishness as extreme but I believe we are in the danger zone.

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