Advantage Bears

The market is now short term overbought as seen below. It is not a great overbought reading but it is enough to put the odds back in the bears favor. The market is also overbought on an intermediate term basis.


The missing ingredient for the bears is sentiment as the sentiment indicators remain muddled. This is somewhat surprising for a rally of this magnitude and duration. One sentiment indicator that is showing excess optimism is the 10 day moving average of the CBOE put/call ratio as seen below. It is now approaching the highest call activity of the year. Unfortunately for the bears other sentiment indicators including the ISE put/call ratio are not confirming this optimism.

 


I remain cautious on the market and believe that the bears now have the wind at their back in the very short term. Sentiment still has room to get more bullish before we see an intermediate term top, which is why I am cautious but not bearish.

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