Europe Is A Disaster

My read on the news out of Europe was that it was terrible. The ECB are the only ones with the power to lessen the crisis at this point and they did the absolute minimum, which was to cut rates by 25 bps with no additional liquidity measures. The Germans just gave in to a Spanish bank bailout so it will be  a long time and likely take  a worsening of the situation before they sign on to take more action.

The US economy seems to be muddling along and not buckling under the weakness is Europe thus far. Selling because of European fears has been costly in recent years so its possible that we ignore Europe until the effects are seen here. The big run up and the news out of Europe makes me cautious. The reason I am not bearish is that valuations are reasonable  and I believe market participants are still positioned somewhat cautiously. In recent years we have seen the market go straight up until it sucks everybody in. If the ECB had done more today I would have thought we see that once again. With Europe a drag I believe it is less likely but bears must leave room open for that possibility.


No comments: