The rallies we have seen in recent weeks do not have the same zip as the rallies we saw last summer. Getting too bearish the past two Summers has been a costly mistake and it seems that market participants remember this lesson. This is likely stopping the bears from pushing too hard and finding themselves caught offsides. The result is smaller, less ferocious moves than we saw last summer (I know its a little odd to call these moves less ferocious).
I have been complaining that the Rydex and Investors Intelligence indicators refuse to fall into place. The Investors Intelligence indicator came out today showing the bulls being just about as low as they were last Summer and Fall. The difference is that the bears are not spiking into territory that usually kicks off an intermediate term rally. Once burned, twice shy. I expect this to continue and believe buying oversold and selling overbought will work this summer.