Home On The Range

I believe that the market is likely to trade in a range for the next few weeks. The low end of the range will likely be somewhere modestly above this weeks lows while the high end is likely around 1360 on the S&P 500.

The downside is supported by the intermediate term oversold condition, the negative sentiment and the recognition that when push comes to shove that the authorities are not likely to let a complete collapse occur. Likely to cap the upside are the uncertainty in Europe, seasonality and worries about the economy. More decisive moves out of Europe would likely send the market towards its yearly highs but it has not paid to hold ones breathe for action out of Europe.

I think the market is likely to visit the higher end of this range but there is risk to thew low end of the range if we get another scare out of Europe. My plan is to trim exposure towards the top of this range and add towards the bottom.

5 comments:

Eran said...

Tsachy, do you still think comverse is a good investment ?

I am trapped there with too much money and trying to figure out if I should just dunp it and stomach the big loss.

Thanks

Tsachy Mishal said...

I think the company is worth more than where its trading at but management is an unmitigated disaster. They somehow burned through $65 million this quarter. The guidance is for cash to grow for the balance of the year but Im assuming it stays steady. However, the time is coming closer where they split the company up and its very likely the stub which trades at a $100 million valuation and has at least $600 million in revenues is worth far more. I believe it should get sold.

I got lucky and sold the majority of my position a few weeks ago. When Symantec blew up I still had a small gain in the position and wanted to cut some risk. This was probably my most speculative position. I did not see this coming but rather sold out of sheer luck. I still have a small portion of the position and am tempted to add to the position but will wait until the rest of my portfolio starts to perform better.

Eran said...

Thanks Tsachy. I appreciate your views and thoughts very much.

Tsachy Mishal said...

Thank you. By the way, CMVT is eligible to be added to the Russell 2000. Russell releases the list tonight. It should be good for a few percent if they do get added.

Tsachy Mishal said...

CMVT was added to the Russell 2000.