The Oversold Rally Is Nearing

The chart below is the 10 day moving average of the NYSE Advance-Decline line, which is showing an oversold market. It is possible for this line to go lower today and tomorrow but after that it becomes very difficult. This has to do with the numbers that are being dropped from the 10 day moving average.



The chart below is the 10 day moving average of the CBOE put/call ratio. It is showing the most put activity since early December. It will have a difficult time going much higher starting tomorrow.



Many signs are pointing to an oversold market and this should lead to a rally. Unfortunately, there are also some troubling signs such as expanding new 52 week lows and sentiment indicators that have not reached intermediate term extremes. That likely means that the rally will have  a difficult time travelling too far and that we are likely to need to retest these levels again after  a rally.

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