Mixed Feelings

My knee jerk reaction to yesterday's big up day was to want to get bearish. Big up days on Federal Reserve news and Apple earnings have a tendency to mean revert. However, when I looked at the data there was little supporting evidence for much more than a small move lower.

The market has been choppy for weeks so one big up day does not make it overbought. As I have recently outlined sentiment is cautious. One day is not likely to change sentiment all that much. The bears have some positives going for them. Seasonality is neutral for the next few months after being very favorable for half a year.  We still haven't seen a swing to extreme pessimism after 6 months of optimism.

Yesterday's trading does not change my outlook all that much. I still don't see any great advantages, long or short. I believe its better to wait for the bulls or bears to push this too far in either direction.

2 comments:

Shubh Desai said...

When S&P was at 1400 couple months ago my 50 stocks dividend only portfolio was up 20%. Today S&P is at 1400 again and my same portfolio is only up 10%.

Tsachy Mishal said...

The stocks that do well going into a correction are not usually the ones that do well coming out.