The Blogger Who Cried Wolf

The turn of the month always adds an interesting dynamic to the market. It tends to have a positive bias and with the powers that be trailing the market handily year to date I would not be surprised to see them defending positions today. That said and with the risk of sounding like the boy who cried wolf, I am anecdotally seeing more and more reasons to be cautious.

  • There is now broad acceptance to the idea that the market will not pull back or that its just not worth it to try and anticipate one. The most often cited reason is that everyone else is looking for a pullback.

  • Even the bears are too scared to short. Yours truly included. If investors ever find a reason to sell there will not be much support from bears looking to cover shorts.

  • A blogpost that gently told readers they were idiots if they weren't making money in this market was widely circulated yesterday.

  • Another slew of secondaries were announced last night as bankers continue to roll out the supply

  • I almost didn't write an opener today because I fell like such a schmuck being cautious.



bclund said...

Fading my blog posts is not necessarily a bad thing :)

Tsachy Mishal said...

I like your blog. Im happy you posted because I was worried you would take it the wrong way. I just think its  a sign of the times that this particular post was widely circulated yesterday.

daltonvanden said...

Market is heavy. Does not have that umph on good news. Looking for a reason to pull back. I expect a 1-2% dip before moving higher. Its time for AAPL to stall a bit.

bclund said...

Hey no, I am just glad for the link, appreciate it.  

I know what you are saying, in fact I have a post coming out tomorrow about dip buying down opens, and in the back of my mind I keep thinking "Hmmm....right after I post this will buying dip opens fail?" .