A diary of the thought process behind my investment decisions
The correction will be in the 1st Quarter of 2013. Abandon herd mentality.
If by correction you mean a 10% decline than that is a possibility. But I am not looking for 10%. If you believe that we will not even see a 4% decline until then I believe the odds are very slim.
I don't expect more than 1-2 % small pullbacks.
The chances of not having more than a 2% pullback all year are virtually zero. I think its safe to assume that has never in the history of the stock market occurred.
Let me be exact. If there was a fast %5+ rally over the course of a few days at some point it could retrace that move and that could be considered a correction but it will be well above this level and the trend will be intact, I believe.
It's interesting that IWM, TNA and RSP (S&P equal weighted) are pretty much flat since Feb. 2, almost 3 weeks.It appears that the large cap indexes are continuing upwards due to the success of huge stocks like AAPL and IBM, but the broader market has been working off it's oversold condition, likely preparing for another move upwards.I think the correction callers may be frustrated here as the oversold condition is being worked off behind the scenes.
Excellent point! That is one of the method I am using to gauge the market.
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