I am concerned about the retail sales figures going forward. For the past year retail sales have benefited from the payroll tax break. The payroll tax break is still in effect but is no longer a benefit year over year because last January is when it started. The full effect will not be felt until February as people spend their December paycheck in the first half of January.
One would think that this would already be taken into account by economists as this is not news. However, I often find that such simple calculations are missed. Retail comps might be challenging going forward.