Not Again

We have seen a familiar pattern since early August of ~10% rallies followed by ~10% declines. This current move looks like the beginning of all the other 10% declines we have seen. If history repeats we will move lower in pretty much a straight line.

I don't believe the pattern will play out this time. I don't believe we have seen the same level of exuberance as previous times. There is an almost unanimously negative view heading into the EU summit that has kept sentiment from reaching an extreme. Additionally, there are only so many times people can panic in anticipation of a catastrophic event. While I could see another down day I believe the decline will be short lived.

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