Ignoring The News

Longtime readers of my blog may have noticed a difference in recent months. I used to rarely discuss the news or economic number of the day. I believe most of the time the news is just noise and it is better to focus on the various indicators I track.

In recent months I have done an about face and have spoken extensively about the situation in Europe. On days where the ECB decides not to buy peripheral bonds, spreads blow out and we go lower. When the ECB decides to intervene we go higher. While the indicators have worked well at the extremes, in between it has been all about Europe.

Many prefer a pure fundamental or a pure technical approach. There are dangers in mixing the approaches as confirmation bias comes into play. It is much harder to be objective when mixing approaches as if one does not find the data they are looking for in one approach they can look to the other.  I have kept this in the back of my mind at all times and try not to let this happen.

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