Bulls Maintain Slight Advantage

I still believe the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt but there are some cracks starting to show in the rally. The number of 52 week highs was lower on Friday than on Thursday, even though the market closed well higher on Friday. The reason for this was likely the narrowness of the advance on Friday as the strength was concentrated in the most defensive sectors. The most bullish thing the market could do is consolidate and see some sector rotation as other sectors catch up to the defensives.

A rally generally starts showing some divergences before it fails. This is only the first sign that the rally is starting to tire. The positives are that seasonality remains very strong, the market will not be overbought until later this week or early next week and that large market participants remain underinvested. I still believe the bulls have the advantage but we are no longer in the early innings of the current rally.

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