The Chances Of Another Lehman Moment

I believe we are headed higher in the intermediate term unless there is a systemic event a la Lehman Brothers. At the current juncture a systemic event seems like a low probability outcome. Every politician remembers Lehman Brothers, which makes a disorderly default scenario highly unlikely. As much as voters hate bailouts, they hate deep recessions even worse and politicians around the World know this.

In the EU the ECB is buying bonds, while the IMF has various lending programs. The nearly $600 billion EFSF fund has been approved and there is now talk about leveraging it 3 to 5 times via loan guarantees. While countries like Germany have talked tough regarding bailouts, when push has come to shove they have not let us fall into the abyss.

Trillions of dollars of unspent bailout funds are  a kick of the can at minimum. It is highly unlikely that we will exhaust those funds in the next few months. The doom and gloomers might be proven right, but further down the road.

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