On The Other Hand

The short run is a tough call as the S&P 500 has shot up by 11% in a little over four trading days. A correction of this move would not be surprising but is not yet a high probability trade. A good overbought reading is still a week away.

I prefer to measure overbought based on time rather than price. It takes about ten trading days for a strong move to exhaust itself and this move is only a little over four days old. If we continue to rally through next Tuesday we would have  a good overbought reading. At that point we would be bumping up against options expiration, which can often serve to extend moves.

In the past few months rallies have been failing well before the market has become fully overbought. However, if this move is the real deal this rally can continue into next week before exhausting itself. That does not preclude corrections along the way. In the short term I don't see a high probability trade either way.


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