Wax On

The persistence of market moves in both directions in the past couple of years has been astounding. The market just continues in a single direction with few corrective moves in between. It has paid to wait for extremes before fading the market and playing for corrective moves has been a mug's game. I believe this is occurring because of the prevalence of momentum strategies and because hedge funds reduce risk when the market goes down and vice versa. Both strategies exacerbate market moves.

We are currently not at an extreme but at a  point where we would normally expect to see a corrective move. In past years I might go net short at this point for a trade, but under the current circumstances I am only willing to go to market neutral.

While corrective moves have become rarer, they have not disappeared. I believe that we will eventually see one, at which point I would feel more comfortable taking on market risk again.

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