"Like The Action" Is Not Actionable

I have heard two bullish arguments this weekend.  The most prevalent has been that the action was great on Friday, given the bad news. Secondly, many now believe that that underperforming, underinvested hedge funds will need to chase performance. While I could see this bullish scenario playing out, I believe these are shaky grounds on which to make an investment decision.

Few liked the action a few weeks back but that was an exquisite time to buy. I prefer buying when everybody is bearish rather than when everybody "likes the action". In my experience, the best time to buy is when it feels scary and wrong.

I am not bearish but the bullish arguments being touted are not the type that get me excited about the upside. Color me unconvinced of the bull case. Right now I am neither bull nor bear but opportunist.



No comments: