AAII Sentiment Near Historical Average

The AAII individual investor survey has bulls and bears near historical averages, with 39% bulls and 29% bears. One can say that investors should be more negative given the recent drop but for the most part this is yet another muddled indicator. This raises my conviction that the best course of action is to wait for the bulls or bears to push things too far.

I believe it is too dangerous to short because the EU can announce a bond buying program at any time. On the negative side we are heading into weak seasonality next week and are still overbought. A decline next week would get us oversold and we would be heading into positive turn of the month seasonality the following week. I doubt the market will make it so easy but one can hope.

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