Too Easy

People who tried to fade the Greek news today are suffering some pain. There are a number of reasons that I believe this trade did not work out:

  • Too many people were trying to fade the news because it worked last week after the confidence vote. It was a crowded trade.

  • The setup was different than last week because there was little exuberance heading into the vote today, whereas there was extreme call buying heading into last week's vote.

  • Seasonality is now positive.

  • It is the end of the quarter. With the sovereign issues out of the way for now, markups are more likely.

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