Getting Overbought

For the past few months we have been in a trading market where the market statistics have actually mattered. Both oversold and overbought readings have been working. I believe this will be the case for the remainder of the Summer.

The market has been up for four days in a row. If we manage an up day today the market will have been up five days in a row and we will have a weak overbought reading. I would then expect a pause at minimum for the remainder of the week.

Today is the seasonally strong first of the month and the last day of  the oversold reading. Seasonality has worked exceedingly well over the past year, which means many have been front running the effect. The risk is that all the front runners turn sellers as occurred on March 1. If we get a down day today the balance of the week becomes a tougher call.


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