Extreme Put Buying

The CBOE equity only is above 1.00 again. Every put/call ratio is showing extreme put buying. If today were not Friday I would be loading up. I would not be surprised if we staged a rally between now and the end of the day. Either way we are setting up for a better rally. This feels a lot more like the end of a  decline than the beginning.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

I can't believe the action in the VIX. With all the selling we've had it never spikes up. That may be what's preventing a rally.

Anonymous said...

I suspect that this fall is more about dollar strength.

Anonymous said...

Apparently the CDS's on European debt are held primarily by the U.S. too big too fail. If the loan package for Greece fails, not only will the dollar strengthen and markets fall, but our banks could be facing massive hits. So the U.S. may be forced to accept a French IMF president to share the losses equitably among all western taxpayers.

Anonymous said...

1234-1242 should be capitulation EOD or Monday

Anonymous said...

did we just see capitulation?

Tsachy Mishal said...

Time wise we are close. We are in the capitulation stage. By mid week we likely will have turned. Could happen at any time. Last bit down can be scary but today was scary IMO

Anonymous said...

turns at bottoms are usually marked by volume surpassing 3 month avg.  we are light today

Tsachy Mishal said...

No bottom is perfect. With this level of pessimism I would not be that surprised if we saw a bottom. I think we are within a couple of days.

Anonymous said...

... the FED will turn the market again with some form of qe...todays 2PM announcement was signaling  they are watching the market and ready to step up to the plate

Anonymous said...

/wrists