Siding With The Bulls


  • Most sentiment indicators show too much bearishness but not extreme bearishness

  • Seasonality is positive as we are now in the turn of the month.

  • The market is oversold and will remain oversold until the end of the day on Wednesday.


These three arguments have me giving the bulls the benefit of the doubt until the middle of next week. There are two factors that have been keeping me only modestly bullish:

  • We never saw much fear or panic during the latest downturn.

  • Events in Europe seem to be coming to a head. There is a chance Greece will not get its next round of bailout money and the Greek government only has enough cash to go until mid-July.


 

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I believe that the dollar will go back to weakening again relative to the euro. This is based on the likely approval of Lagarde at the IMF. The rest of the world will be forced to bail out Europe if the U.S. agrees. The result should be quite positive for U.S. stock markets.

Tsachy Mishal said...

It will take an infinite amount of money to bail out Europe. It can only be delayed.

Anonymous said...

I don't mean to imply that it will be positive forever. If the markets can count on a 6 month delay, the music will play.