Best Case Scenario

Higher commodity prices are clearly starting to  have a negative effect on corporate profits and the economy. The rise in commodity prices has likely not been completely passed through because many companies hedge their production. I believe that a continued rise in commodities would be quite negative for the markets and economy, even though they have been positively correlated until now.

The best case scenario for the market might be that we see a continued drop in the stock market and commodities followed by a rebound in stocks while commodities lag. If stocks and commodities bottom here and take off together I believe it will lead to a lot more trouble down the road.

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