Midday Thoughts

  • Once apon a time a lot of call buying on a down day did not bode well for the market. We are seeing quite a bit of call buying today.
  • Given how many momentum groups have unraveled in the past few weeks its pretty amazing the market is not down more. Not to mention some small uprisings in the Middle East.
  • There has been a rotation into defensive, cheap, beaten down stocks. I cannot say I'm upset about that.
  • Why is April the strongest month of the year? My best guess is tax refund season.
  • Is everybody else out there praying for a selloff or just plain praying?


Anonymous said...

Mostly cash for a long time now, not sure what to pray for.

Completely handcuffed by my long term pessimism. I think a lot of traders, big and small, have the same problem.

But unwilling to short for anything more than a short term trade. Stocks are bulletproof... still.

Ever since the Feb 18 high though the intra-day swings have been amazing. The e-minis are trading like cotton futures.


Chaos! said...

Weakness in copper and the grains may be fortelling an end of the excess liquidity. Worth keeping an eye on.

PJ said...

I haven't gotten to praying but I would benefit from a move down as I am heavily short.

I chose my leverage to be able to sit through a new high in the Russell and we've been close enough to surprise me, but not close enough to make me deviate from that plan. It would be nice to have more breathing room though.

I don't know what happens in March and April but the recent selling on the open and close suggests to me that hedge funds / big-money buyers who trade at high volume moments are getting out. If so the top may be in.