Recent History or Longer History

If recent history prevails then the market is now on its way to new highs. If the market acts in a more typical fashion than the market should explore the downside some more in the coming days. A bounce like we are seeing this morning after such a nasty day is not atypical. However, it should not carry very far if we are going to see some more downside.

I don't believe that we are off to new highs. Aside from the fact that the market is extended, the current geopolitical events are having an effect on the economy by elevating oil prices. Its difficult for me to imagine us going off to the races while oil prices remain at these levels and with the current geopolitical uncertainty.

No comments: