Par For The Course

After a massive drop earlier in the week a reflexive rally is exactly what one would expect. Normally, I would expect the rally not to go very far and fizzle within a day or two. However, we are entering the seasonally strong turn of the month.

The seasonal strength lasts through Wednesday of next week so its not difficult to imagine a rally carrying that far. In a normal market I would then expect another move lower or at a minimum a retest of this week's lows as the market has not corrected in months.

I believe oil prices will be the key. If oil prices are still elevated next week than it is difficult for me to imagine us making a run to new highs without at least another retest of this weeks lows.

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