Forecasters cannot accurately predict a hurricane months in advance as there are too many factors involved. However, I can say with relative certainty that we will not see a hurricane in the US this February as many of the conditions necessary for a hurricane are not present at this time of year. I can also say that come August and September we are much more likely to see a hurricane.
Similarly, there are times when the market is more vulnerable to a dislocation. I believe the ingredients for a market dislocation are present. Market participants are heavily long and likely not well protected. Now there has been a potential shock. If market participants suddenly become risk averse it could get ugly very quickly. This does not mean that I am predicting a dislocation, I am only saying that if a dislocation were a hurricane we are currently in August.