Rainy Days Have Been Banned

Long time readers might have noticed that the number of posts I write a day has declined recently. While I have been busier than usual the main reason is that all analysis recently has been for naught. The market just creeps higher regardless of any analysis.

We have not seen a real down day in over a month. There was only a single down day greater than a half of percent since December 1 and we were down just about a half percent that day. There are only so many times a day I can say that caution is warranted.

With everybody certain that the coast is clear, I believe the risks are high because of that. When people are worried a great deal of bad news is built in to stock prices. When they are unanimously optimistic, little bad news is priced in and at times even good news can lead to a correction. That said I am only slightly short because I am having a hard time seeing a turn. Hopefully, I will be able to see when the bulls push too far and add to my shorts at that point.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

There was talk several years ago that trend following was dead. Interesting that all strategies seem to cycle in and out of style. What worked yesterday may not tomorrow.

Chaos! said...

28 days and counting without a 1% pull back. Rarely does this get to 30.