More Random Thoughts

  • I have been doubling down on research for when we finally do get a correction. The pickings are slim and it will have to be a doozy of a correction in order for valuations to become attractive again.
  • It feels so wrong and silly to be bearish that it has to be right. 
  • Its rare for a market to turn this close to expiration. Once a rally reaches this point the turning point usually happens after expiration.
  • The conversation going on in my head about when to lean hard against this market goes as follows: Me: "Just wait until expiration. If the rally reaches that point it will be a layup" Me: "The VIX is at 15 and the market is running on fumes. So what if you are a little early? Why even leave a chance for this opportunity to get away?"
  • A few years ago this type of market would have chewed me up and spit me out as I would have been all in short by now. What changed? Discipline and patience. 
  • When this market finally corrects, who won't it catch offsides?
  • A reader compared this market to late 2006. I agree that is the closest comparison but that rally made more sense to me because we were seeing a $10 billion LBO a week. Where is this endless demand coming from?
  • Have a great weekend.


Anonymous said...

My thoughts.

I blog here 1-2 per week. I like being Anon. You can usually point me out from my bad.

I am one of the most bullish people here. I started the 2011 predictions late last year. Someone replied that I was quite/overly optimistic.

I think the recovery is real and will grow in intensity. I think the s&p will double in 3-4 years.

That said I also know there will be decent corrections.

The way I'm playing the market because of my forecast is simple. I will be buying dips, averaging lower. This is retirement money. I'm not trading to pay the mortgage.
I do take profits and buy lower.

We are very extended. I won't be buying anything else until a correction. I won't be shorting though. I will start to a crew stocks when it feels right. Maybe 2-3% pullback. If we go up another 20-30 points before the pullback, my buying will take place after a bigger pullback.

Anonymous said...

S&P will not double in 3 to 4 years. S&P will be either 10 to 20% down from hear or no change from here in 3 to 4 years.