A diary of the thought process behind my investment decisions
Last month I bought TLT for a trade when we probed this area and I am considering buying for a trade once again if we go under 90. However, I want to see rates at the short end of the curve move up first. After today's data I would have expected to see a bear flattener, meaning short rates going up more than long rates. But the holders of short term paper are remarkably complacent. The possibility of higher rates anytime soon are not being priced in by the short end of the curve. It could be quite a shock once reality sets in.