The Bluff

When I saw the headline employment print, my first thought was that it was great for the bulls because it will keep rates and commodities in check, which I believe are the biggest threat to the recovery. The ADP survey, unemployment claims, the household survey and anecdotal data all point to a better jobs market. The non farms payroll number is subject to great revision and not much better than a random number generator. That means that the bulls get to have a stronger economy that goes unnoticed by the bond and commodity markets. Let QEII continue.

However, the commodities markets have reversed to the upside and are recognizing the situation for what it is. Treasuries seem to be confused. I believe the reaction in those markets will determine the longer term direction of the market.

6 comments:

Chaos! said...

CBOE Equity Put/Call still shows call buying. This may be the start of a real selloff.
Given the poor breadth of the last part of the rally and the historic sentiment numbers, it could be a doozie!
Fasten your seatbelt!

Anonymous said...

Market showing cracks but I'd wait til after expiration to delve deeper.

Anonymous said...

got dndn @ 36.5 today....holding long term could be a double!

Anonymous said...

loaded sds and faz at the close today

Anonymous said...

genz moving after hours- any ideas?

Anonymous said...

vz to announce iphone Tuesday. This is going to impact vz eps huge!

Could be a $45 sh with 6 months.