Vicious Cycle

Treasuries have been in a self reinforcing cycle for the past few days where selling has begot more selling. They seem to have stabilized, which hopefully has stopped the process.

5 comments:

PJ said...

I think they're oversold and undervalued, but I also think December has become an extremely seasonally weak month for Treasuries. Sovereign issuance is huge and continuous, but buyers take a break for the holidays.

I'm looking to buy Treasuries in the week between Christmas and New Year's, and thinking I might get prices in the 117-118 range, 1-2 points below current levels. But I would happily buy at current levels once we get past Christmas.

Anonymous said...

Plain and simple.

When? Or is? the stock market going lower? Next week? Next month? Never?

It sounds to me, people in here have been quite bearish for several weeks. Pointing out the 10dma the call buying, high confidence ect.

Bottom line..I havent seen any move lower. Just a couple of sideways days.

Do you think we get a substantial move lower any time soon. more than 3%?

thanks.

Tsachy Mishal said...

I don't know where the market is going. Nobody does. I believe we are headed lower and therefor I am short.

Onlooker said...

anon

I think you should be long. It's clearly time for that.

Anonymous said...

Onlooker

Your probably right. They are the only ones making $$.

Plus, It has been said in here that markets usually don't turn on options expiration. Expect another up day Friday! Momentum is clearly in the bulls camp. Bears have had numerous chances and blew it. Maybe a pullback next year.