Tops Are Processes

Bottoms are events and tops are processes. A good example of a bottom was on September 1 when the S&P 500 shot up by 30 points and never looked back. A good example of a top was April when we saw a market that started trading sideways in mid April and did not crack until late April, nearly two weeks later.By the time a top is formed even the bears have given up.

The fact that options expiration is today did not help the bears. Expiration often serves to help a trend persist, only to see the market come down the following week (as a few readers pointed out). I believe the market is topping but what worries me is that Christmas is coming along with the positive seasonal tendency. That may serve to extend the topping process or even bring a marginal new high. If we do get an expiration hangover early next week I might be more inclined to cover my net short but I will likely stay tightly hedged.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

VIX is year low today.