- There has been a steep rise in margin debt.
- According to every survey I have seen equity allocations have been rising.
- Short interest has declined to levels not seen since 2007.
- Put/call data and the VIX point to a very unusually large proportion of money going into calls.
There are assumptions that I am making. I assume that surveys roughly reflect what people are really doing. I assume that a preponderance of calls being bought means that people are bullish, even though some call purchases can be paired with a non-bullish position. There are other assumptions that go into this method. But that is the reason I use a lot of data and when it is all pointing in the same direction I have found it to be correct. Nothing is perfect.
Some readers in the comment section are suggesting that the "aggressiveness of buyers" is what moves markets and that money flows do not matter. They offer no definition of "aggressiveness of buyers" and no way to measure it.