The Short Term Bear Case

I am considering shorting into a gap up on the employment report for the following reasons:

• Sentiment surveys are still at bullish extremes.
• After pulling back a little during the recent correction, Rydex traders are back in an extreme bullish position.
• There has been extreme call buying for two days in a row.
• The beginning of the month has passed.
• The short term oversold condition that existed at the beginning of the week is gone.

 But the following are making me have second thoughts:

•  I hate being short at this time of year.
• While the market is slightly overbought now, it is not at an extreme.
• Other than the ISE Equity, the 10 day moving averages of the put/call ratios are not at an extreme.

I am still considering if and how to play a gap up this morning (if we get one).