A diary of the thought process behind my investment decisions
Yee haw, sure is. And yet the market is clearly struggling here and breadth is tepid. I've got a small short position on as of late yesterday; down about 0.5%. We could fall off the ledge any time now, IMO. Something like Jan of this year is coming is my guess. Or like Feb '07. Similar situations.
We could see another 1-2% push higher before it falls apart though. That might just be in line with your view on "overboughtness." It never ceases to amaze me how this plays out again and again.
One thing that helps me get a picture on the structure of the market is the COT report on big board S&P futures. Since November 2, the large spec have been liquidating longs as the market market has moved higher and the small specs have increased their longs by over 100% during the same time period. It usually doesn't work well as a timing too, though at the bottom in August it did, it gives you a good idea of market structure.
Tsachy, how did things look like in April. Do your indicators line up like they did back then
Pretty much exactly the same, except for one big difference. We were heading into May which is seasonally weak.
Now we are headed into some of the strongest seasonality of the year.
October is some of the worst seasonality of the year and it was on eof the greatest octobers ever
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