Tough Call

The widespread belief that the correction is over and its up, up and away into year end bothers me. I also believe that expiration exacerbated yesterday's move. Thirdly, the market is digesting a lot of supply as there was well over $30 billion in stock issuance the past couple of weeks. All this leads me to believe that we should see an expiration hangover early next week.

Until I think of all the positives the market has going for it. The market will be oversold early next week and we are heading into some of the strongest seasonality of the year. Strong seasonality tends to work best during times when the animal spirits are strong such as now.

All this leads me to conclude that an expiration hangover could probably be bought for a trade. However, chasing the market here might not be that great of an idea.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

This morning’s Merrill Lynch Fund Managers Survey showed optimism surging to April highs. Investor´s Intelligence survey also showed extreme optimism. Markets are moved by surprises. The belief on the positive December sazonality could be a trap for the bulls. Price action deteriorated markedly. This does not fit well with the prevailing sentiment among investors.