A diary of the thought process behind my investment decisions
My guess is retail gasoline and heating oil. The "market" oil price does not hit home unless it gets to the pump. Unless you live in a city center, chances are, you drive by gas stations, fill up regularly, and can feel/monitor the increase. Food is more logical (and will be the flashpoint in developing countries) but in the US food as a % of the budget is low, and for the people that are more vulnerable, there are food stamps (record participation, but it is free food)
The public is stupid. 70% of country cannot name vice president and yet we expect them to understand fed policy. You live in nyc I assume and or live in a sophisticated crowd. Go to a mall (one without nordstrom) and start asking about the fed, most wont even know who bernanke is not to mention a thing about monetary policy.Long story short when gas surges they will blame big oil and congress will do song and dance by bringing big oil ceos for their biannual grilling. Bernanke is teflon
Paul Krugman thinks that printing $2 trillion would solve the unemployment problem. He has a simple mental model where the level of employment increases linearly with the amount of printed money (i.e. the discredited Phillips curve).Unfortunately, there are lots of unintended consequences, like $5 gas, that end up choking the economy.
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