Strong Seasonals

The market has been acting like it wants to correct but I suspect that fiscal year end for mutual funds and the approaching elections and QE II have not allowed the market to do so. The window for a correction is closing fast for the bears. At the end of the day today the market will sort of be short term oversold, although it won't be a great reading. We will have essentially gone sideways for ten days. We are also entering one of the seasonally strongest periods of the year.

If the market does manage to sell off today it could probably be bought for a trade into QEII. I would be much more comfortable with this trade if sentiment were not so stretched and we had a better correction. If this scenario does play out than we should finally see a correction shortly after the QE II announcement.

2 comments:

PJ said...

Expectations for QEII are greatly exaggerated. It's bound to be a disappointment.

Chaos! said...

I agree. The Fed let it out of the bag this am that it will be smaller than the street's expectation. Could create some turbulance.