Not One and Done

It is unlikely that the excesses of a two month uptrend have been corrected in a single day. At best I believe the bulls are looking at sideways trading for the next few days and at worst we might see a meaty correction.

The reason this rally has been so strong is that in late August portfolio managers were de-risked and had a lot of room to buy. That is no longer the case as I believe they are now overweight equities. At this point increased risk appetite will only take us so far.

The market will need something else if it is going to push much higher into year end. I don't believe individuals will drive the next leg of the rally although I have underestimated their risk appetites (or tolerance for pain) before. The most likely source of a continued rally would be cash M&A, LBO  activity and share buybacks. While we have heard many rumors there has been only a little action thus far.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

So far the bulls are making this look like a one and done correction. Do you see selling into this rally?

Tsachy Mishal said...

I am a little surprised by how strong the market is. I expected to see a rally attempt but I did not think the bulls would make it this far. Im a little confused in the short term.

That said, I prefer to buy when everybody is negative and that certainly is not the case now.