Fundamentals Vs. Indicators

I think of myself as a value investor that tries to time the market. Value investors think its heretic to try and time the market and technicians think its heretic to talk about fundamentals or funnymentals as they like to call it.

My style is a combination of both and it works for me. My stock selection is based mainly on valuations and fundamentals although I do pay attention to liquidity factors. For instance, I chose Gilead Sciences as a long because of the ridiculously cheap valuation but I made it an outsized position because Gilead was aggressively buying back shares and there was a lot of cash M&A activity in the healthcare sector.

I don't pay much attention to fundamentals when I am trying to time the market. At the end of August the bears had great arguments about why the market should go lower. But the fact was that every sentiment indicator was pointing to extreme bearishness and the market was oversold. Under those circumstances the market usually goes higher and this time was no different. If the market as a whole were cheap than I would likely shy away from timing the market, but in my opinion it is not.

It annoys me to no end when I read articles or books with investing or trading rules because different strokes work for different folks. There is no right way. If I would have listened to those trading rules I would have never come up with my style, which works very well for me.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

When doing fundamental analysis, what is the process that you take.

Anonymous said...

In other words...tell your viewing audience how to make money like you!

Especially if we don't trade options.

Tsachy Mishal said...

I will try to put ap a post on Monday detailing my fundamental approach.