Then there is that other group. They are all conclusion, zero input. Process is irrelevant to them, Outcome is all.
They work backwards. They start with a conclusion, and sift through all the data to justify that conclusion. They do not change their minds. They do not care about facts or data or input. They never admit mistakes. “Truth,” as we have discussed in the past, is an irrelevant inconvenience.
They are ideological jihadists.
This group contains a mix of bad fund managers, perma-xxxxs, political ideologues, corrupted journalists, partisan hacks. They are prisoners of the cognitive biases that are so fatal to good investors.
Its called “reaching a conclusion” for a reason; its how you end, not how you begin. We do not say “reaching for a conclusion” but that is how member of this group seem to operatesMr. Ritholtz is a little harsh because it is a cognitive bias (something which we are hardwired to do) to try and look for supporting facts to our opinions. Most people do not even realize that they do this. It took me many years to learn to overcome this bias.
Readers might notice that I am constantly making lists of both the bull and bear cases. That is because I am constantly weighing the evidence, even if it goes in the face of a position I hold. That is the opposite of guests on CNBC who are always so certain about where every market and commodity are going. I know many view it as a weakness or indecision but it is quite the opposite. I doubt I would be able to trade for a living if I operated in any other way.