What Can Go Wrong

The biggest threat to the bulls is an economic accident and an accident is the only way I could see considerable downside in the next few months. Sovereign issues are the most likely cause of an accident. The EU raised money in order to help alleviate the funding crisis and still has a lot of firepower. While this might only push the problem further out in time I believe it will succeed in doing that and do not expect a crisis right now.

The sharp move higher in the safe haven currencies in recent days is somewhat disturbing and gives me some pause. If something does happen this will certainly be pointed to as the canary in the coalmine. This makes me more vigilant and on the lookout for possible issues but I am still not expecting a crisis right now.

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