Up Than Down

When there is a widely watched support or resistance level like 1130 on the S&P 500, I prefer for it to get broken in order to get sentiment extreme. It is likely that many bears are using that level as a backstop and many fence sitters are waiting to see if the bulls can break above that level. A breakout above 1130 would likely cause a flurry of short covering and get the final holdouts into the bull camp.

I believe a breakout above 1130 early this week would setup a nice trade from the short side. Aside from the likelihood of finally getting sentiment extreme, there will be  a lot of supply mid-week. The greater than $30 billion Petrobras secondary is set to price mid-week and the Deutsche Bank $12 billion rights offering is also set to launch mid-week.

Both these secondaries are not US offerings so they will not have the same effect on our markets as if they were. But global markets are interconnected and these offerings are large enough to make a difference. At a minimum I believe they would give a rally pause, giving me a free look on the short side for a few days.

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