The Slow Motion Slowdown

The current slowdown is very different from the ones seen in 2000-2003 and 2007-2009. In both cases there was a lot of leverage by market participants heading into the slowdown and corporations had a lot of excess capacity and excess inventory. Currently neither is true as market participants are positioned conservatively and corporations are running pretty lean.

Investors have been rejoicing at the recent data because it has been less worse than feared as some braced for a double dip that mirrored the experiences of the past decade. Investors might want to wait before sounding the all clear as the economy is still slowing albeit at a slower pace than investors have gotten used to. Stimulus is wearing off causing municipalities to shed jobs and causing a renewed slowdown in the housing market. Production is slowing as inventories have been rebuilt but final demand has not picked up. But the drop off is not as sever as in previous slowdowns because we are starting from low levels.

Relying on experience of the past decade to navigate the current market and economy is a mistake. I believe the best course of action is to fade the excitement when investors think the economy is improving and fade the gloom when investors believe we are in for a collapse similar to those seen in the past decade.


Random Thoughts said...

Mammary Monday - Kacey Barnfield

nicasurfer said...

With all the talk of no double dip and gold, coal, and the dollar so strong is imminent of either stagflation or deflation. I agree better prices could be had at lower prices.

Just recently florida is cutting 50% of the lifeguards for deerfield county. The best of the best.