Seemingly Conflicting Signals

The American Association of Individual Investors survey is out and there are over 50% bulls, the highest reading this year. Yesterday, the Investor's Intelligence survey was out and bulls were at 36.7%, which shows a different picture of more neutral sentiment. It even could be described as on the bearish side.

The discrepancy between the two surveys is that the respondents to the AAII survey tends to flip depending on which way the wind is blowing and the II survey tends to represent medium to longer term sentiment.

These two seemingly contradictory readings actually jibe well with my view of sentiment. The medium term players like hedge funds are still positioned conservatively, albeit less so than a couple of weeks ago. While shorter term momentum guys are on board.

This makes for a tough decision as short term sentiment is too bullish but medium term sentiment can still fuel further gains. Some sort of breakout above the widely watched 1130 level would likely serve to get people into the bull camp quickly. If that were to occur going short would be an easy call. But right now there are no easy answers.


Applesaucer said...

I've been selling over the last five-or-so trading days (not shorting, though).


Anonymous said...

wressessPotential shorts are waiting for an extreme extreme. They have been conditioned. Tough call.